2020, man. Am I right?
It really feels like we have seen almost everything this year. Pandemics, protests, impeachments, murder hornets…the list goes on an on. Yet, for anyone living along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, this was apparently merely a prelude to what promises to be one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. Yippee!
Look, we had a derecho that plowed across Iowa and a few days a go, some dude posted this video of three water spouts at the same freaking time.
Pretty sure we really pissed God off this time.
Currently (as of writing this Thursday afternoon), we have a pair of tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin. TD 13 is still well out in the Atlantic, northeast of the Leeward Islands and heading west-northwest towards the Caribbean. It is expected to steam just north of the Caribbean Islands, perhaps even grazing a couple of them, before heading towards the straights between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida early next week.
TD 13 is closer to home in the Caribbean south of Jamaica and heading west toward Belize. As it nears the Yucatan, it is likely to make a northwesterly turn before heading into the Gulf for a date with…well, we don’t know yet.
Because both of these are relatively young, having really just formed, model forecasts are all over the place. TD 13 has a spread that includes an area between Mexico and Mississippi. At the moment, Houston appears to be in the bullseye, but that can and likely will change. The “cone of uncertainty” is over 200 miles wide.
The good news is TD 13, while likely to become a tropical storm tomorrow or Saturday, will probably pass across the mountainous Yucatan and wind shear in the Gulf is forecast to tamp down, if slightly, the intensity forecast. Having said that, we are five or six days out from a landfall if it were to head our way. A lot of things can change in that time. We could have anything from a storm to a hurricane taking aim at the upper Texas coast or it could head a different direction.
By Saturday, forecast models should have a better grip on the storm, at least in terms of its track. Regardless, it is probable we will have two storms or hurricanes in the Gulf early next week, a rarity, but not unprecedented. At this point, we wouldn’t be all that surprised if they formed on giant storm (that’s actually a thing, believe it or not) filled with sharks and murder hornets carrying COVID-19.
It’s 2020 after all.